The Third Generation of Autonomous Vehicles

Currently several companies, especially Google, are working on the first generation of autonomous self-driving vehicles.  These seem to do a good job of driving and hopefully once on in production they will be better then people driving themselves.  That is in fact the main selling point, a vehicle that can avoid accidents because it is relentlessly watching the road. However, based on the current laws for these vehicles there still needs to be a licenced driver that is ready to quickly take control if needed.  In other words, the first generation will really be an autopilot.

The second generation is going to be what we see on television and in movies: vehicles driving themselves with passengers not even bothering to pay attention to what is happening around them.  It will be like the best driver imaginable is at wheel. Accidents should be cut down to nil due to the computer's literally split second response when avoiding an obstacle, be it a jaywalker or a child chasing after a ball.  However, when not exceptionally avoiding accidents one would expect them to still mimic current driving patterns.

However, we need to consider not just how the cars will evolve, but also how people will.  Due to issues with people driven vehicles we got used to the derogatory term Jaywalker and related laws  were created to prevent people from getting injured or killed by walking into traffic.  Children were taught not to run into the street for the same reason.  However, people still randomly run across the street at their own peril and once the danger is removed, why would society continue with the probation?

While getting rid a crosswalks the thought will turn to controlled intersections and speed limits.  Current intersections are to allow people driven traffic to cross paths and inconveniently stops all flow of traffic in certain directions to allow the other directions to safely proceed.  Speed limits are designed to ensure that the driver can keep control of their vehicle.  This leads to the slowing of traffic and in extreme cases, Gridlock.  However, with a computer in control, speeding down the road or crossing a lane of traffic would be no more dangerous then walking down a sidewalk or crossing the flow of people.

These social changes will bring about the third generation of autonomous vehicles, designed to find a path from point A to point B as fast as possible while preventing accidents by  intelligently predicting and dodging around or between obstacles.  Stoplights will have gone the way of the milkman and just people waking into the street would be normal. 

I imagine these vehicles would look similar to the spherically wheeled vehicles in I,Robot or maybe the domed vehicles in The Jetsons.  They will be able to accelerate in any direction and rotate freely.  The occupants might prefer to be laying back watching the sky as it moves and twirls if they become too dizzy watching the road.  The computer would have to accommodate inertia to ensure the occupants are not injured while food and drink would also be impossible, as would anything requiring hand-eye coordination, except for perhaps a mounted or worn electronic device.

If a  person from today woke up in this future it might be a beautiful site to see someone or even be the person that runs into traffic for the elegant ballet that will ensue ensuring the safety of all.  For others, it could be horrifying, like the legend of the people who saw that train coming at them from the movie screen and ran for their lives.

Perhaps even both.